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  • 2023: Year of the Linux Desktop (Redux)

Grumpy old man post of the day ...

2023 has arrived, and with the new year come a spate of articles predicting that 2023 will be the "Year of the Linux Desktop" (e.g. "9 Reasons Why Linux Might Catch Up to Windows and macOS in 2023").

The annual spate of articles is entirely predictable, and the articles are so similar from year to year that I wonder whether the authors simply recycle last's year's "Year of the Linux Desktop" articles. Pffft.

Linux is a wonderful operating system, and holds the dominant market share in the server, cloud and IoT markets, but never gains a foothold in the desktop market. Year after year Linux desktop limps along with a 2% +/- market share.

The reasons are obvious to all Linux desktop users (relatively difficult installation, relatively steep learning curve, limited driver support, limited support for proprietary software with significant market share, lack of consistent package management, a plethora of half-baked distros and niche applications, and so on) and have been for years and years. Torvalds addressed the issues in 2014, and nothing much has changed since then.

Although the Linux desktop has improved a lot since I began using Linux in 2006 (around the time that Linux sages were predicting a 25% market share for Ubuntu within a year or two), the Linux desktop has not kept pace with Windows or macOS in terms of user experience. Linux achieved a desktop market share about 3-4% at its high water mark, and has settled into a 2% +/- desktop market share since. I don't see that changing significantly unless the Linux desktop significantly changes.

I spend more time than I should thinking about the suitability of Linux desktop for "ordinary home desktop users" (intelligent people with simple needs -- browsing, word processing, solitaire-level gaming, ability to swap documents back and forth with their kids and grandkids, and so on -- but who are not technically inclined and want to be able to have their computer(s) work consistently without intervention or problems) because I support a significant number of friends using Windows 10 who have those needs. All face the reality that they are either going to have to upgrade equipment in 2024 or switch to Linux.

I keep searching (in the back of my head) for a Linux desktop solution for them. To be blunt, I'm not finding that solution. Zorin might work, Ubuntu Budgie might work, Solus Budgie might work, but all of those solutions entail a lot more work than my friends are likely to tolerate and a lot more knowledge than my friends currently have.

My current advice to them is to wait until mid-2024, and then take another look, but plan on biting the bullet and buying a new mid-range ($500-700) laptop/desktop running Windows 11. That's my advice because I don't think that the Linux desktop, in its current state, is a good choice for them.

It is a real shame. Android and Chrome OS show how good a well-designed Linux consumer product can be, but the Linux desktop is not in that ballpark. I wish that a major player in the Linux community would get its act together and do for the desktop what Google did with Android and Chrome OS.

    tomscharbach . To be blunt, I'm not finding that solution. Zorin might work, Ubuntu Budgie might work, Solus Budgie might work, but all of those solutions entail a lot more work than my friends are likely to tolerate and a lot more knowledge than my friends currently have.

    Emphasis mine. That's the fly in the ointment right there as far as broader market appeal: linux desktop--get ready to do a little work on your own. How's that for a marketing slogan? That is a turnoff to the average computer user. I've considered returning to a hassle-free life a handful of times.
    It seems the people who are already here are sold on it's virtues and rewards. A small club but we're in it.

    tomscharbach I wish that a major player in the Linux community would get its act together and do for the desktop what Google did with Android and Chrome OS.

    We will see. Great observations, Tom.

        Its like I was reading serpent os forum and was mention of gnome I am not sure gnome
        is the do all great desktop and not sure whats on there mind but since they are so new
        I hope they think some about the desktop and dont lose it in the underlying mechanics of linux.

        I think If someone in these de would really apply themselves a great desktop may someday come of it
        Yes I know it takes alot of work and that may be the underlying main issue its easier to copy something
        than make your own.
        Just a hard call. Its hard to when manufactures arent on the bandwagon to.
        Follow Da MONEY!

          tomscharbach Zorin might work, Ubuntu Budgie might work, Solus Budgie might work, but all of those solutions entail a lot more work than my friends are likely to tolerate and a lot more knowledge than my friends currently have.

          Fedora Cinnamon is also near the top of my list for Linux Noobs. It has fractional scaling and gestures and the interface is very windows like.
          Still more work than most will want to do tho. I gave a laptop to a student with Linux Mint installed, with the instruction to update it at least monthly. A year or so later when looking at it I asked him if he ever updated it. He said "update?". I pointed to the nag icon on the panel, he said he doesn't look at that stuff.

          tldr: updates must be automatic for Windows converts

          edited for clarity

              murbert Fedora Cinnamon is also near the top of my list for Linux Noobs. It has fractional scaling and gestures and the interface is very windows like.

              Axios I think If someone in these de would really apply themselves a great desktop may someday come of it
              Yes I know it takes alot of work and that may be the underlying main issue its easier to copy something
              than make your own.

              It would make sense to me that long-established, successful for-profit linux merchant Red Hat are best in the position to take the lead on a desktop with broad Linux appeal. Reason: ways, means, personnel.
              That said, they'd need to create a non-enterprise desktop with broad appeal...they ain't got that.
              ** Like murbert said, there are prettier noob-friendly distros out there...who are not in a position to mass market or unify.
              **and like Axios said "Just a hard call. Its hard to when manufactures arent on the bandwagon to."

              I'm left with one conclusion, Tom. Maybe the idea of FOSS has to win hearts and minds before Linux can?

              edit/verbose

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                    • Post #7

                    brent foss is free if you don't value your time

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                        • Post #9

                        brent I think things have gotten easier though and user interfaces have gotten better. I however think having to tinker at times when not up to it is one reason for lower appeal.

                          tomscharbach The reasons are obvious to all Linux desktop users (relatively difficult installation

                          Are you kidding? It takes me a long time to install Windows. Coming up with three security questions and three answers, dismissing attempts to get me to create a Windows account so I won't have a "limited" experience. And on and on, trying to keep Windows out of my limited experience.

                          I can install Solus (and most other popular distros) in very few minutes, having provided very limited information about myself. And much of it defaulted.

                          EDIT: Upon further thought, you're probably right if we throw in the need to download a Linux .ISO file and install it on a DVD or a USB flash drive. Windows is off to a pretty good head start when a person buys a computer with it already installed. From that point on, I still think Linux has the advantage. Not a lot of computers available with Linux installed, though.

                          I keep a Windows 10 VM handy for running my one Windows-only application -- my Nook ebook reader, but I very seldom use it anymore. I mostly read a Nook book at night to read myself to sleep. Beats drugs. I created a Windows 11 VM a while back, but I didn't much care for it. Just getting too old, I guess, and set in my ways.

                              WetGeek Are you kidding?

                              No. I am not kidding when I say that switching over to Linux involves "relatively difficult installation".

                              Keep this in mind: The typical Windows 10 user switching to Linux desktop has never installed an operating system. Windows came with the computer, and the most any of them have done is to reset Windows. Almost none have installed Windows from scratch or needed to do so.

                              If you are capable of doing so, put your long and extensive experience with installing Linux distros into a mental lockbox, and think through the process of installing Solus with fresh eyes, from the perspective of someone who has never installed an operating system.

                              Start with deciding which ISO (Budgie, Gnome, MATE, Plasma) to download, then move on to downloading the ISO and checking SHA256SUMS without instructions about why you should do it or how to do it, then move on to preparing your disk (enable UEFI, disable Secure Boot, disable Fast Start, make sure that your disk is GPT formatted, cut over to AHCI if necessary, and so on), and then move on to installation instructions, decide which instructions to follow (USB or CD, ISO-based or DD-based installation, and so on), find a USB/CD and prepare it, and then boot from the USB without knowing how to do that or how to change the BIOS Menu to enable USB boot if not enabled, and then, finally, move on to the installation process itself, making choices about whether to install standalone or install alongside Windows 10, whether or not to use LVM, and so on.

                              For you and me, each of us with scores of Linux installations under our belt, none of this seems at all difficult, but I don't think that is true for an "ordinary home desktop user" of Windows without our knowledge or experience. I think for most all of them, the installation process is "relatively difficult".

                                  tomscharbach I think for most all of them, the installation process is "relatively difficult".

                                  Yeah, as I implied in my edit, Windows has a huge advantage given that it's pre-installed on nearly every personal computer that's sold. Linux will need to find a way to do the same, which would remove most of the challenges to installing it.

                                  Google has managed to do it with Chromebooks.

                                      WetGeek Google has managed to do it with Chromebooks.

                                      Chrome OS is what Linux desktop for "ordinary home desktop users" should aspire to become. I don't own a Chromebook, but I looked at the school-supplied Chromebooks used by my grandchildren over the holidays. Everything is graphical, everything is crisp and well-designed, everything is simple and intuitive, nothing breaks, updates are automatic and invisible, and you don't have to understand a single thing about the plumbing underneath it all to use it productively.

                                          tomscharbach Chrome OS is what Linux desktop for "ordinary home desktop users" should aspire to become.

                                          Maybe Chrome OS could be a gateway drug for Linux? Lots of users might go no farther, but the curious ones might take the plunge and never look back. Like us.

                                              WetGeek I think it's more of an extension of how you live in the browser. They just use Google products.

                                                  Brucehankins They just use Google products.

                                                  Yeah. I bought one for my wife, because I got tired of her going through expensive laptops, on which she simply played solitaire games. I figured she could do that on a Chromebook. And I'd read a few times in the forum that folks had installed Solus on one, so I figured the sky's the limit.

                                                  Turned out, I couldn't install Solus on that Chromebook. And the solitaire games available for it sucked rocks compared with the Linux versions she'd become accustomed to. And the kiss of death ... it wouldn't connect to our wi-fi, so Amazon got it back.

                                                  I've noticed that other Chromebooks sell for nearly a grand, so they must be much more capable, but for the cost of a cheap new Chromebook, I can buy her a nice refurbished DELL Latitude that will run Solus flat out. And all the games she's used to. So that's what she uses now.

                                                      WetGeek I've noticed that other Chromebooks sell for nearly a grand, so they must be much more capable

                                                      There is some really nice hardware out there from ASUS, Google, and HP. I could easily live with one of the high end options and be mostly happy since I also have a very capable desktop. As the only option, I wouldn't stay strictly with ChromeOS no matter how good the hardware was.

                                                          Brucehankins Seven years ago my niece (brother's kid) asked me to help her understand her new chromebook. I was petrified. No accessible filesystem. Not a single app. Just a browser. The whole system might have been 750MB was my impression. You used all apps (MS Office, etc) from the cloud and saved your life to the cloud. Conceptually I was revolted. This isn't computing. Hope things have changed🙂 maybe she got a low-end one?

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                                                              • Post #20

                                                              ShintoPlasm I've been daily driving Fedora for a couple years now and SELinux hasn't been an issue even once.

                                                                ShintoPlasm they hit the brick wall known as SELinux and give up on Linux forever.

                                                                I have no idea what you mean by this. Fedora and some Fedora-based distros, like Ultramarine, are some of my favorites for non-Solus distros. They're fast, with very little bloat, and they don't limit me in the ways many others do. Fedora is one I could easily live with if Solus were to disappear suddenly.