Grumpy old man post of the day ...
2023 has arrived, and with the new year come a spate of articles predicting that 2023 will be the "Year of the Linux Desktop" (e.g. "9 Reasons Why Linux Might Catch Up to Windows and macOS in 2023").
The annual spate of articles is entirely predictable, and the articles are so similar from year to year that I wonder whether the authors simply recycle last's year's "Year of the Linux Desktop" articles. Pffft.
Linux is a wonderful operating system, and holds the dominant market share in the server, cloud and IoT markets, but never gains a foothold in the desktop market. Year after year Linux desktop limps along with a 2% +/- market share.
The reasons are obvious to all Linux desktop users (relatively difficult installation, relatively steep learning curve, limited driver support, limited support for proprietary software with significant market share, lack of consistent package management, a plethora of half-baked distros and niche applications, and so on) and have been for years and years. Torvalds addressed the issues in 2014, and nothing much has changed since then.
Although the Linux desktop has improved a lot since I began using Linux in 2006 (around the time that Linux sages were predicting a 25% market share for Ubuntu within a year or two), the Linux desktop has not kept pace with Windows or macOS in terms of user experience. Linux achieved a desktop market share about 3-4% at its high water mark, and has settled into a 2% +/- desktop market share since. I don't see that changing significantly unless the Linux desktop significantly changes.
I spend more time than I should thinking about the suitability of Linux desktop for "ordinary home desktop users" (intelligent people with simple needs -- browsing, word processing, solitaire-level gaming, ability to swap documents back and forth with their kids and grandkids, and so on -- but who are not technically inclined and want to be able to have their computer(s) work consistently without intervention or problems) because I support a significant number of friends using Windows 10 who have those needs. All face the reality that they are either going to have to upgrade equipment in 2024 or switch to Linux.
I keep searching (in the back of my head) for a Linux desktop solution for them. To be blunt, I'm not finding that solution. Zorin might work, Ubuntu Budgie might work, Solus Budgie might work, but all of those solutions entail a lot more work than my friends are likely to tolerate and a lot more knowledge than my friends currently have.
My current advice to them is to wait until mid-2024, and then take another look, but plan on biting the bullet and buying a new mid-range ($500-700) laptop/desktop running Windows 11. That's my advice because I don't think that the Linux desktop, in its current state, is a good choice for them.
It is a real shame. Android and Chrome OS show how good a well-designed Linux consumer product can be, but the Linux desktop is not in that ballpark. I wish that a major player in the Linux community would get its act together and do for the desktop what Google did with Android and Chrome OS.
