Further to Harvey's point on normies( 😛 ), I think the only way any Linux distro will become truly mainstream is if it's adopted by hardware developers. The average user doesn't know how to install a different operating system on their device, so often the only way to convince people to adopt a new operating system is to have it already preinstalled on the device they're using.
That's all very unlikely though, unless a large business decides to take up the mission. Microsoft can just keep giving hardware developers new incentives to release their devices with Windows preinstalled.
Cause Harvey is right. A surprising amount of people don't even know how to install new software on Windows itself, nevermind installing a different operating system.
Of course, we can hope that the next generation growing up with 21st century tech might put in the effort to learn how it works. A bit of healthy scepticism considering that apparently some parents recently haven't even toilet-trained their kids according to an article today, but there is hope.
On that note though; perhaps if and when education improves, people's willingness to adopt new software may also improve. Of course, the way our UK education system at least is heading at the moment, education seems to be degrading rather than improving, but eh, we can dream of a resurgence.